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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.